ارزیابی و پیش‌بینی گسترش افقی شهر قزوین با تأکید بر تغییرات کاربری اراضی، طی دوره (2011-1986)

Nowadays, irregular horizontal expansion of the cities is one of the nation’s major problems, having been given way to as a result of ever-increasing importance attached to the cities and their population concentration. The problems of the cities are the intertwined structural, economic, social, and environmental factors resulting from irregular horizontal expansion. However, despite difficulties, it should be reiterated that the horizontal expansion of the cities is indispensable. The current research is descriptive-analytical and has investigated and analyzed spatial-structural expansion of the city of Qazvin as well as land-use changes in it. Evaluating the process of physical expansion of the city and being aware of models of land-use changes and making use of the obtained results are important in the city’s future planning. Regarding the fact that, currently, Remote Sensing technique is the best method of monitoring environmental changes and identifying land-uses, which also enjoys the highest speed and the most accuracy, the current research has used the images of Landsat from 1986 to 2011, having been evaluated and analyzed via satellite-images processing techniques and GIS. The results indicate that the constructed area of the city of Qazvin has increased from 1645.29 Hectares in 1986 to 3428.73 Hectares in 2011. According to Holdern Model, such an increase is mainly due to population factor (%58.36) and unbalanced urban expansion factor (%41.64), which are among the important factors in land-use changes in the very city.